AEW’S BIG WIN
The full impact of AEW’s renewal with WBD has not been felt but this was a gigantic victory for the upstart group after celebrating the fifth anniversary of its flagship program. Multiple figures have been cited, all of which should bring AEW into its most prosperous period from a profitability standpoint and open doors for enhancements to the front office, behind-the-scenes, and structuring. The deal, which includes Dynamite and Collison but omits Rampage from the list of programs, also entails a significant carve-in for the Max streaming service. This includes simulcasting the two programs, the AEW library migrating to the service, and eventually, discounted pay-per-view access.
AEW has faced greater scrutiny than anyone could imagine and has created an environment where it is nearly impossible to talk about the strengths and weaknesses of the company in any civilized fashion. Stepping away from the online banter, it’s a remarkable achievement for a company to secure such a lucrative rights deal, which will have huge reverberations for the industry and mainly talent, which should benefit from a profitable alternative. The second WWE began offering huge deals in 2019 was already a signal to talent to champion AEW’s success as the promotion was already raising the floor on talent contracts before AEW had launched on television. It’s gone both ways with certain performers receiving new life by jumping back and forth, and the greatest example was Cody Rhodes returned to WWE as the conquering hero who reinvented himself.
A while back Nick Khan had predicted that the top-of-the-line sports properties would flourish but it was the leagues and properties in the middle tier that may feel the pinch when it comes to media rights fees. AEW bucked that trend as no one will argue that they are among the top properties in sports but this latest deal plants them as a firm middle-tier company and its escalation in rights fees is a major sea change for AEW and its viability. That’s a major achievement and proof positive of professional wrestling finding meaningful media rights dollars without the ‘WWE’ letters behind it.
The industry is stronger, although comes with the realization that with so many hours of content produced by WWE & AEW, there has been a noticeable drop off in attention allocated for wrestling outside of the two major groups. NJPW underwent a drastic hit during the pandemic and with the loss of key stars like Kazuchika Okada and Will Ospreay. It is aggressively transitioning to the next generation of stars but that one transformative talent has yet to emerge but there are candidates in the pipeline. TNA has had its ups and downs, but the resurrection of its former branding led to a strong performance in January for Hard to Kill, momentum was lessened after the departure of Scott D’Amore, but they have come out stronger benefiting from a working relationship with NXT and showing tangible evidence from its recent attendance figures as a beneficiary of the agreement. CMLL is enjoying a prosperous period but the visibility for U.S. audiences is high with a $35 monthly price to follow its major shows, but the Friday night shows at Arena Mexico always provide exciting crowds and exist in its universe without the goal of entering the U.S. market. ROH is similar where it’s a Tony Khan vehicle and its pay-per-views always deliver but the weekly television is an afterthought for most and few are willing to sign up for Honor Club to watch more quality wrestling when it’s a battle to keep up with the existing contest that isn’t behind a paywall.
The independent scene in the U.S. is dependent on geography but has not been able to recover to pre-pandemic levels and part of the reason is many stars you would see at the independent level are now wrestling on TV or doing rare Indie appearances. In this time frame, PWG went from being the most influential Indie as a showcase for the next stars to break out and the hardest ticket to grab, to a company that is all but finished and has yet to run a show in over a year.
Fans have a finite resource in time and while some fans will make it their lives to follow everything, that’s a small number. The industry was changing and the DNA of WWE and AEW was producing more and more content for more and more revenue. Each has grappled with the balancing act of too much content burning out its audience as Raw experienced for years after the move to three hours in July 2012. AEW is experiencing that now with five hours of weekly television without considering ROH. The calendar for 2025 is still a question mark regarding show lengths for Raw on Netflix, SmackDown on USA, whether AEW’s increase in rights coincides with an expansion of its two-hour block on either night and the lingering question of whether ‘Shockwave’ is licensed to a broadcaster and creates further hours on the schedule.
Scrutiny will continue for AEW and there is always room to warrant such. This new deal comes as AEW is experiencing attendance woes, which go beyond seasonal or competitive disadvantages in markets and is a health check on its perception. Much has been said and written about its promotion of shows in advance – both on-screen and directly in the local markets, and there are areas to improve. While television numbers have declined, its rankings on cable still place its brand as a reliable one, especially for Dynamite on Wednesdays. Unquestionably, WWE’s resurgence over the last two years has played a factor, and likely a major one for the reasons mentioned about that finite resource for fans, time.
Some fans were desperate for more wrestling in 2019, there was also a subset that just wanted a better version of WWE and found AEW to be a breath of fresh air five years ago but has since returned to WWE. AEW continues its identity shift away from its initial mission as a cure for fans who were run down by a WWE that fell asleep at the wheel creatively. Today, that isn’t the general fan sentiment toward WWE and AEW must adjust to show why it’s a destination and not just an alternative. This new deal allows for the runway necessary where they don’t have to navigate a contract year and any uncertainty as their future is firmly set for the next several years and can find that core identity.
We are left with countless questions about where AEW goes in 2025 and beyond, but a huge one was answered this week regarding viability and profitability even when many questioned its capability.
This week was a big ‘win’ for AEW.
POST SCHEDULE
Tonight: Rewind-A-SmackDown with Wai Ting & Neal Flanagan (POST Wrestling Café)
Saturday: POST Puroresu with WH Park & Karen Peterson
Saturday: WWE Bad Blood with John Pollock & Wai Ting
Saturday: Collision Course with John Siino & Kate from MTL (POST Wrestling Café)
Sunday: UFC 307 with John Pollock & Eric Marcotte
Rewind-A-Wai #166 is up on the POST Wrestling Café covering NJPW’s Sakura Genesis card from April 2017. This features the near career-ending match for Katsuyori Shibata when he wrestled Kazuchika Okada and suffered a subdural hematoma after a skull-to-skull headbutt in the closing minutes. This was one of the most severe consequences of a pro wrestling match with Shibata undergoing brain surgery and having partial paralysis on his right side temporarily. It was believed he would never wrestle again despite several angles shot over the next few years. He returned unannounced for an exhibition with Zack Sabre Jr. on the final night of the G1 Climax in 2021 and is now a regular with AEW. In this show, we review the entire card, the success NJPW was enjoying in this era, the rise of Kenny Omega, potential follow-up options had Shibata not been injured, and the reaction to the headbutt in 2017.
The next review covers Saturday Night’s Main Event from Oct. 3, 1987, and will be released on October 15.
WRESTLING NEWS
**Earlier this week, Variety reported that the value of the new deal between AEW and WBD was “upwards of $150 million per year when all elements are factored into the equation”. The outlet has since updated its story with a figure of “$185 million per year when all elements are taken into account.” The latter figure was the one reported by Fightful and WrestleVotes along with the Wrestling Observer outlet.
**Wrestlenomics has an analysis of the AEW renewal with WBD with Brandon Thurston using the estimate of $168 million as the average annual value and his theory on the variance in figures reported over the past few days:
I believe some portion of the $35 million difference between $185 million AAV and the originally reported $150 million is not cash, possibly having to do with WBD’s minority equity stake in AEW and/or other in-kind values WBD will give to AEW throughout the term of the deal. Equity by its nature — like stock in any company — has speculative value; the share prices in public companies, for example, change by the minute. So various reports might be taking for granted different values in the equity of AEW.
**One week after its release, Dr. Martha Hart issued a scathing statement regarding the handling of Owen Hart’s death in the Mr. McMahon series on Netflix. Hart stated she was never contacted regarding the series for comment and that it was not an accurate portrayal to conclude that Hart’s death was an accident. The handling of that story was greatly simplified in the doc series and misleading to attach no blame onto WWE, who ultimately settled with Hart in 2000 for $18 million. WWE had previously used a stunt coordinate named Joe Branam for repelling stunts and when his rate of $5,000 was given, WWE opted to go a different route. In addition, it was cited that Vince McMahon wanted to speed up the release because he had felt it took too long to release from the carabiner (the way Sting always repelled and had to unhook himself as an example of this method). Branam had been adamant about not using a quick-release snap shackle for the stunt but due to concern WWE would opt for a more dangerous stunt, Branham had his right-hand man Randy Beckman offer to do the stunt for a reduced rate of $3,000. WWE had already moved on with their plans. The company went ahead with another coordinator named Bobby Talbert for the stunt at Over the Edge using the quick-release snap shackle. Talbert had worked on three of Sting’s stunts in WCW, but its coordinator was Ellis Edwards, who was the key person running those repels. A lawsuit was filed by Martha Hart against WWE, Vince McMahon, Lewmar Inc. (the manufacturer of the harness and snap shackle), Bobby Talbert, Matt Allmen (Talbert’s assistant), Jim Vinzant (a city rigger, who was on the catwalk for the stunt), and the city of Kansas City. There were no criminal charges laid, so it became a civil matter and in time, Martha realized it was only monetary justice and opted to settle in November 2000. The outline of the case for Martha was produced in her 2002 book Broken Harts, which is an excellent resource for those seeking the nuances of the stunt and the case at large. Lewmar was dismissed from the case by Hart and her lawyers for zero money, which WWE challenged and was able to sue Lewmar and received $9 million from the manufacturer, who didn’t admit liability when the figure was agreed to.
**Friday Night SmackDown airs from the Bridgestone Arena in Nashville tonight. The last update from WrestleTix listed over 9,600 tickets distributed. The following matches and segments have been advertised:
*WWE Tag Team Titles – Ladder Match: Tama Tonga & Tonga Loa © vs. DIY vs. Street Profits
*Dumpster Match: Michin vs. Chelsea Green
*Naomi vs. Tiffany Stratton
*The return of AJ Styles
*A preview for Cody Rhodes & Roman Reigns vs. The Bloodline at Bad Blood
**Here are the matches for AEW Rampage tonight at 10 p.m. ET on TNT from the tapings in Pittsburgh:
*Young Bucks & Jack Perry vs. Katsuyori Shibata & Private Party
*Orange Cassidy & Kyle O’Reilly vs. Bryan Keith & Big Bill
*Queen Aminata vs. Harley Cameron
*Kamille in action
**For viewers in Brazil, it appears that Netflix will be streaming Bad Blood live on Saturday night. Earlier this year, the streamer did a similar experiment by streaming WrestleMania 40 for viewers in New Zealand.
**Bully Ray has been added to the Maple Leaf Pro Wrestling shows in Windsor, Ontario on October 19 & 20 at St. Clair College. The shows will be streamed on TrillerTV with Mauro Ranallo & Don Callis on commentary.
*Felino is the latest addition to MLW’s Lucha Apocalypto show on November 9 at Cicero Stadium in Illinois. The lineup includes Místico, Atlantis, Atlantis Jr., Último Guerrero, Titán, Hechicero, Felino, Magnus, Bárbaro Cavernario, Esfinge, Okumura, and Lluvia. The show will be streamed live on MLW’s YouTube channel.
**Josh Alexander has been announced for Josh Barnett’s Bloodsport XII on November 24 in Jersey City and streams on TrillerTV+.
**Jason Cruz from MMA Payout sent a records request to the Washington State Department of Licensing and reports that the September 13 edition of Friday Night SmackDown sold 12,775 tickets and had a gate of $867,000 at the Climate Pledge Arena in Seattle. AEW will be running WrestleDream in the state next weekend at the Tacoma Dome.
**Denise Salcedo of Instinct Culture has an interview with Kayla Becker a.k.a. Kayla Braxton on her time in WWE and comparisons between working for Vince McMahon and Paul Levesque.
**The UFC 307 card is Saturday night from the Delta Center in Salt Lake City, Utah featuring two championship fights. Alex Pereira defends the UFC light heavyweight title for the third time this year with Khalil Rountree Jr. as the sizable underdog. There is the obvious question of Pereira continuing to push this pace and Rountree Jr. shouldn’t be overlooked with five wins in a row and very strong standup skills but is facing an elite striker in Pereira. Many were upset that Magomed Ankalaev was not the next challenger, but he is fighting Aleksandr Rakic in three weeks and with a win, should be guaranteed to be the next title contender.
Raquel Pennington makes her first title defense of the 135-pound championship against former champ Julianna Peña. Both were on Miesha Tate’s team on The Ultimate Fighter in 2013 but have never fought each other despite a decade in the division. Peña has not fought in over two years since losing the title to Amanda Nunes and that brings about plenty of questions and is a probable reason the odds are so close. I still favor Peña, who has great wrestling, but Pennington has quietly put together a six-fight win streak including the championship victory in January. The focus of the division is Kayla Harrison and for marketability, the bigger fight is Pena as champion.
First, Harrison must beat the #2 ranked Ketlen Vieira. After years of doubt that Harrison could even make 135 pounds, she is back less than six months after making the weight in April and running through Holly Holm. Vieira accused Harrison of “cutting the line” since coming to the UFC, which is the opposite of what’s happened. It would have been promotionally viable to put Harrison into a title fight immediately with the credentials of a two-time Olympic gold medalist and 16-1 record when she came to the promotion. Instead, she’s been thrown a former champion in Holm and now Vieira, which is more than earning your spot for a championship fight at a time when the women’s bantamweight division is in flux and Harrison is the most viable candidate to become a marquee star.
Carla Esparza will have her retirement fight against Tecia Pennington. The 36-year-old was the UFC’s first Strawweight champion in 2014 and built herself back after losing the belt to Joanna Jedrzejczyk to regain the title in 2022, which is a rare feat for a former champ to come back all those years later and regain it. She was never a big star in the division but competed at a very high level for a decade and it’s rare to see that occur in the lighter weight classes.
All fighters made weight on Friday morning.
MAIN CARD (10 p.m. ET on pay-per-view)
*UFC Light Heavyweight Championship: Alex Pereira (11-2) vs. Khalil Rountree Jr. (13-5)
*UFC Bantamweight Championship: Raquel Pennington (16-8) vs. #1 Julianna Peña (11-5)
*José Aldo (32-8) vs. Mario Bautista (14-2)
*Ketlen Vieira (14-3) vs. Kayla Harrison (17-1)
*Roman Dolidze (13-3) vs. #15 Kevin Holland (26-11)
PRELIMINARY CARD (8 p.m. on ESPNews & ESPN+, Sportsnet 360 in Canada)
*Joaquin Buckley (19-6) vs. Stephen Thompson (17-7-1)
*Iasmin Lucindo (16-5) vs. #6 Marina Rodriguez (17-4-2)
*César Almeida (5-1) vs. Ihor Potieria (21-6)
*Austin Hubbard (16-7) vs. Alexander Hernandez (14-8)
EARLY PRELIMS (6:30 p.m. on ESPN+ & Fight Pass)
*Ovince Saint Preux (27-17) vs. Ryan Spann (21-9)
*Carla Esparza (19-7) vs. Tecia Pennington (13-7)
*Court McGee (21-13) vs. Tim Means (33-16-1)
***
REWIND-A-WAI #166: NJPW Sakura Genesis 2017
John Pollock and Wai Ting discuss NJPW Sakura Genesis 2017 featuring Kazuchika Okada vs. Katsuyori Shibata and the infamous skull-on-skull headbutt that resulted in the latter suffering a life-threatening subdural hematoma.
***
REWIND-A-DYNAMITE
John Pollock and Wai Ting review the fifth-anniversary episode of AEW Dynamite and break down the new WBD deal with Brandon Thurston.
***
POLLOCK & THURSTON
John Pollock and Brandon Thurston examine independent contractors in pro wrestling following the suit filed by Kevin Kelly & The Tates.
***
upNXT
Braden Herrington and Davie Portman review The CW debut of WWE NXT featuring Roxanne Perez vs. Giulia and Ethan Page vs. Trick Williams.
***
REWIND-A-RAW
John Pollock and Wai Ting discuss WWE Raw with the Last Monster Standing match between Bronson Reed and Braun Strowman.
***
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